The House GOP needs to pass the budget sent to them by the Senate for the good of the country.
The House GOP doesn’t have to pass the Senate’s version of the budget it received this week. But if that budget doesn’t pass and Congress then moves quickly to the reconciliation trailer bills —if the House rejects the budget outright or haggles through another round of grandstanding— kiss the majority goodbye and get your impeachment gear out and lined up.
Speaker Mike Johnson knows this. Majority Leader Steve Scalise knows this. Pretty much everyone with a working political brain knows this. But if President Trump and the House Leadership lose three of their GOP House members, the budget vote will fail. And in the wake of that failure will follow turmoil in the markets that could make last week’s look mild as uncertainty about the tax code on January 1, 2026 will add to the mix of fear and fog that is driving the market and business decisions for the past week.
The electoral tide chart tells us the GOP should lose the House anyway next year (the first Congressional election after a presidential election in which the majority party in the House loses that majority of it is the same party of the president.) Such a loss is not inevitable, but it is a recurring pattern with few exceptions. Those exceptions include 2002, when President Bush’s House GOP picked up 8 seats.
JOHNSON FACES UPHILL BATTLE KEEPING GOP DIVISIONS FROM DERAILING TRUMP BUDGET BILL
2002 was the most unusual of electoral contexts as it was the first referendum on Congress after 9/11. That’s not the sort of event anyone wants, so expect a “normal” cycle, one in which the GOP is paddling upstream.
President Trump won’t be on the ballot, so his unique pull on occasional voters will be diminished even if, as expected, he campaigns hard and long alongside other GOP draws like Vice President Vance, Senator Tom Cotton and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.
Johnson and Scalise know they need not just an “all-in” effort but an unusual pattern of economic conditions to hang on to control of the lower House.
The Senate where the GOP holds a 53-47 edge is in better shape with GOP pick-ups possible in New Hampshire and Georgia, not impossible in Michigan and Minnesota, and Senator Thom Tillis as the only vulnerable GOP incumbent. (I know the Democrats will pour money into defeating Maine’s Susan Collins but “Saint Susan” is the most formidable of incumbents, always on the move on the state, chair of the mighty Appropriations Committee and genuinely beloved because of her decency, courtesy, intellect and courage.)
That “unusual pattern of economic conditions” most assuredly requires a growing if not a booming economy, and such an economy will need the promised trade deals to settle quickly in the aftermath of “Liberation Day,” but even more important to success in 2026 will be the extension and revision of the Trump 2017 tax cuts combined with construction of the wall, a defense buildup and soaring American energy production. It takes time for these powerful growth factors to kick in. The House GOP doesn’t have time for its show ponies to grandstand. It needs to act. Now.
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Everyone says they are confident that President Trump can bring along the deficit hawks of the House Freedom Caucus. But never underestimate a back-bencher’s need for a moment on cable or a viral video even though killing the budget guarantees a well-funded primary challenge.
So, to those House members thinking about voting “No”: Please keep in mind that your obstruction will unleash some terrible results, including a guarantee of one or two impeachment circuses in 2027 and possibly a deep recession.
Elected officials often say they are in it for the public’s good and often they are. Those Republicans who vote “No” on the Senate’s budget are in it for themselves.
Hugh Hewitt is host of “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” heard weekday mornings 6am to 9am ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh wakes up America on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcast, and this column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.
